BC Economic Review & Outlook
The BC Economic Review and Outlook analyzes some of the most important elements of BC’s current economic performance, such as employment figures, investment trends and export levels.
BC Economy Still Healthy...But Growth Will Downshift in 2017
Following three years in which BC topped the provincial growth charts, in 2017 our economy will lose a bit of momentum.
BC's Economy Remains on Solid Growth Path Despite Muted Global Backdrop
Against the backdrop of a subdued global economy, British Columbia looks poised for healthy growth over 2016-17, continuing the pattern of last year. While parts of our economy will be held back by depressed prices for some key commodities, exports of non-resource goods together with many services – including tourism – are enjoying a lift from the low Canadian dollar. The province’s housing market also remains buoyant, supported by rock-bottom interest rates, better job growth and steady inflows of immigrants and foreign money.
BC's Growth Story Remains Intact...Despite An Uninspiring Global Backdrop
Against the backdrop of diverging growth prospects across the developed and emerging economies and substantial declines in the prices of many commodities, British Columbia is poised for another year of respectable economic performance in 2016.
BC Economic Review & Outlook - Mid-Year Report
Amid External Headwinds, BC's Economy Is Holding Up Well
Against the backdrop of a choppy and risk-prone global economy and decelerating growth here in Canada, British Columbia is holding its own. As a small trade-oriented jurisdiction, the province is certainly not impervious to the economic headwinds, whether they blow globally or from within Canada. Sluggish commodity prices and the oil-driven recession unfolding in Alberta and Newfoundland are affecting all regions of Canada and have prompted us to trim our growth BC outlook relative to expectations back in January. However, by Canadian standards British Columbia looks well-positioned for a decent economic performance over the next 18-24 months.
BC Poised for Decent Growth in A Turbulent World
The Business Council's first Economic Outlook and Review for 2015 projects a 2.6% increase in BC's real GDP and examines the impact on BC's economy of a number of factors including the global economic outlook, a rebounding US economy, declining oil prices and domestic factors such as housing starts and exports.
Waiting for Better Days
Some of the optimism about the global economy evident in early 2014 has diminished in recent months, causing forecasters (including the Business Council) to revise down their growth projections. The change is not dramatic, but the tone has shifted in a more cautious direction.
BC Economy and Job Market to Gain Momentum Over 2014-2015
Against a more balanced and somewhat stronger global growth setting, BC’s economy should make progress in 2014, on the heels of a rather disappointing 2013. We expect the province’s real GDP to advance by 2.3% this year – solid, but not spectacular. By 2015, further improvements in the global economy and a substantial jump in capital spending in BC should push GDP growth above the 3% mark.
Mid-Year Update: BC Economy Slows in 2013, Rebounds in 2014
Against a subdued global backdrop and fairly soft domestic economic conditions, the near-term growth outlook for BC has been trimmed. We now expect real GDP to increase by a sub-par 1.6% in 2013, which is still a bit better than the BC government’s 1.4% projection in its recently tabled budget. At the start of the year we thought that a mid-year pick up in exports and some additional investment spending would lift the province’s GDP growth rate above the 2% mark. While an improved external economic setting will eventually translate into stronger growth for BC, the timing for this positive turn has been pushed back.
BC Poised for Small Bounce in Economic Growth in 2013
In the latest BC Economic Review and Outlook, the Business Council of British Columbia upgrades our economic growth forecast for 2013 to 2.3%, projecting a stronger year than 2012 which is estimated to have grown at 1.9%.
Although the economy slowed in the latter part of 2012, we anticipate the provincial economy will gain some momentum in 2013 with positive economic growth projected for our major export markets including China and the United States and strong non-residential construction anticipated in British Columbia.
Quarterly Update: Impact of Slowdown in Asia Showing UP in BC Exports
In our summer 2012 economic update, we held our forecast for BC’s economy to grow by 2% for the year, citing the fact that a slight improvement in the domestic economy would likely offset the impact of a somewhat weaker global economy on the province’s export sector. While recent developments in the housing market prompt some concern about the resilience of the domestic side of the BC economy, elevated activity in non-residential construction is providing a boost to overall spending. Recent data also paint a mixed picture for BC’s exports. The slowdown in Asia is already showing up in BC’s exports, but shipments to the US are gradually recovering.
While it is a close call, as shifting domestic and external growth drivers are largely offsetting, the softer economic outlook for Asia has convinced us to trim our BC GDP growth forecast this year to 1.9% from 2%. Having already cut the outlook for 2013, and anticipating that China’s stimulus efforts will have some traction, we are leaving next year’s growth projection for BC unchanged at 2.2%.
Key factors in impacting BC’s economic outlook:
- The value of BC’s exports to China is down 3.7% year to date
- Excluding natural gas, exports to the US are growing at their fastest pace in seven years
- Retail spending in BC is up 3.9% year to date
- The number of homes in BC sold through the MLS system is down 25% from year-ago levels, average price of a home sold is off by 9%
- Non-residential construction is back to peak, pre-recession levels seen in 2006/2007
BC More Than Holding Its Own Amid Global Economic Turbulence
At a time of pronounced global uncertainty, BC's economy continues to grow at a decent pace and to outperform many other North American provinces and states. Although there are significant downside risks, BC's economy remains quite resilient with a rapidly shrinking deficit, an increasingly diversified export sector and steady population growth.
Over the 2010-2011 period, BC’s real economic growth averaged 3% - the fourth strongest in Canada and among the top jurisdictions in North America. Although growth will ease over the coming 18 months, this resilience will help to sustain provincial economic activity and keep BC in a relatively strong position even in the face of weaker international conditions.
The Business Council's mid year economic review and outlook anticipates that BC’s economy will grow by 2.0% for 2012 and 2.2% for 2013. Relative to our January outlook there is no change in the forecast for this year, but we have trimmed our growth projection for 2013 due to global turbulence and a slower local housing market.
Slow But Gradually Improving Growth In Store For BC
BC Economic Review and Outlook Feb 2012
BC’s economic growth in 2011 was modest and uneven. The first half of the year was particularly weak, as global equity markets underwent a steep sell-off, the American economy stumbled, the earthquake and tsunami sent Japan into a temporary recession, and financial stresses in the Eurozone escalated. Towards the end of the year, economic conditions in the US improved and, judging by job growth and a handful of other indicators, BC’s economy also appeared to pick up. This helped the province’s real gross domestic product (GDP) to expand by an estimated 2.0% in 2011. BC’s performance was reasonable compared to many other advanced economies, and was in the middle of the provincial growth rankings within Canada.