At present, Deloitte expects B.C.’s economy to contract by a little less than 5% this year. A second wave here or in the U.S. – especially one that necessitates lockdown and stay-at-home measures – would worsen that outlook.
The Business Council of British Columbia (BCBC) is less optimistic with its 2020 forecast for B.C.
In the absence of a second wave, BCBC anticipates that the provincial economy will shrink by 7.8% this year – a slightly deeper contraction than what the council originally estimated back at the start of B.C.’s public health crisis in March.
That contraction is forecast to be followed by a 4.8% increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) next year, “but comes in the wake of a very steep downturn and will only result in B.C. regaining just over half of the economic output lost in 2020,” wrote BCBC report authors Ken Peacock and David Williams.