The COVID-19 pandemic to date has caused over 33 million infections and 1 million fatalities worldwide. It has also precipitated the most severe global GDP contraction of the post-war era. The OECD estimates that the cost of the pandemic in terms of lost income worldwide could reach USD 7 trillion by the end of 2021 – equivalent to a year’s worth of output of France and Germany combined.
Global GDP growth is expected to be -4.5% in 2020 and 5.0% in 2021. Canadian GDP is expected to be ‑5.8% in 2020 and 4.0% in 2021. Against this backdrop, we expect the B.C. economy will shrink by 7.5% in 2020. This is a slight improvement from the previous projection, reflecting a stronger-than-anticipated improvement in consumer spending. In 2021, the B.C. economy should grow by 4.5%, slightly ahead of Canada.
