Wind Electricity in BC
Introduction
Energy is central to economic and human development and well being — a point worth repeating in any conversation about energy.
We produce and consume large quantities of various fuels in a vast interconnected global energy system. We depend on readily available energy to enable day-to-day needs like staying warm in winter and cool in summer, mobility for all manner of activities including traveling to work, taking children to school and daycare, getting groceries to feed our families, and recreation/vacations. As a result, not having the energy we need, or only having access to energy that is too expensive, undermines our standard of living.
Electricity is an important part of the energy system and is a large focus for governments looking to manage greenhouse gas emissions. The addition of cleaner generation fuel sources, such as wind, is one of the new resource possibilities. However, we need to keep the quantity and type of electricity we produce and use in context.
Electricity represents 17% of total global energy consumption. Of this, cleaner sources such as nuclear, water, wind, sun and biomass make up about two fifths of total global electricity consumed while wind occupies a respectable 18% of total renewable electricity (traditional and non-traditional). Overall, however, wind as an energy source takes care of only 3% of total global energy consumed.[1]
In comparison, and like the global energy supply mix, electricity supply in B.C. represents about 17% of total energy consumed. However, wind contributes only 3% to B.C.’s total electricity supply and represents less than 1% of all energy consumed in B.C.
This short paper provides some information on wind energy situated within the British Columbia electric system. For a deeper dive into B.C. and Canadian electricity systems see Hail Electricity.
British Columbia Electric System and Wind’s Role
Important terms and properties to have in mind when thinking about electricity.
It is a secondary source of energy derived from something else — coal, natural gas — and “renewables”: uranium, water, wind, sun, and biomass.
The electrons produced from “renewables” are emissions free, but the processes and machinery used in generating and transmitting electricity are not.
Electricity is convenient and versatile but also complex and invisible.
Electricity is an instantaneous resource where supply and demand must always be in balance, requiring real-time, 24/7 monitoring and control. Absent storage, all electricity generated must be used essentially in the moment it is produced.
Unlike any other commodity, electricity cannot be stored except in some other form like water behind a dam or electrochemically in a battery.
Consumers expect reliable and affordable electricity — available on demand— without interruption.
It is critical to understand the terms used when speaking about electricity:
Capacity is the maximum output an electricity generator can physically produce expressed as kilowatt (KW), megawatt (MW), gigawatt (GW), or terawatt (TW). This is the term most often used when talking about the size of a project.
But the more important term is flow of energy (or the efficiency of fuel inputs to outputs) produced at any given plant expressed as KW hours, MW hours, GW hours (GWh) or TW hours (TWh). This is the amount of electricity a generator produces over a specific period.
Wind and solar are intermittent forms of electricity. They are not constantly available and predictable because the machines (i.e., generators) converting the wind and sun into usable electrons only operate when the wind blows or the sun shines. Being intermittent means they must be supported with baseload generation (i.e., electricity generating facilities that do not change their output quickly) to meet demand at moments’ notice.
Existing Wind Generation in B.C.
Total electricity generation in B.C. comes from 31 BC Hydro facilities, 4 Fortis and 125 privately owned independent power producers (IPPs). Total capacity of the BC system is 18,601 MW. Total electricity produced from all these sources is about 75,500 GWh.[2]
All of B.C.’s wind generation comes from IPPs selling electricity to BC Hydro. The current wind electricity supply in B.C. is generated from 10 projects in diverse locations across B.C. including Chetwyn, Dawson Creek, Port Hardy, Tumbler Ridge, and West Kelowna (Westbank).
These operating wind projects currently produce about 2.2 TWh of electricity from 747 MW of installed capacity. This means B.C. Hydro’s wind resources operate at about 30% for every MW of capacity (wind energy efficiency is typically between 20% and 40%).
Table 1 summarizes B.C.’s operating wind facilities. These projects were bid, selected, permitted, built, and began operating at various times over the past 18 years beginning in 2006, with all but one project in service after 2011.
Source: BC Hydro List of Independent Power Producers, as of April 1, 2023, https://www.bchydro.com/content/dam/BCHydro/customer-portal/documents/corporate/independent-power-producers-calls-for-power/independent-power-producers/ipp-supply-list-in-operation.pdf.
New Wind Supply
British Columbia's CleanBC Roadmap to 2030 has set ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in part by adding large quantities of new clean sources of supply including wind. The Blueprint for B.C.’s Industrial Future chapter on “Electrifying the economy” (starting on page 18) reinforces the CleanBC goal.[3]
In fact, B.C. hopes to have 7.8 TWh of wind generated electricity built and operating by 2030 (see Table 2). This means the gap between what exists and the goal is 5.6 TWh, requiring an expansion of the current B.C. wind generation supply by three and a half times.
Source: Government of BC CleanBC model results, 2022 Provincial Forecast (XLSX, 102KB).
To support this objective, B.C. Hydro is seeking 3,000 GWh (or 3 TWh) of “new clean or renewable generation capability … by as early as Fall 2028.” Anticipation of this Call for Power (CFP) has been high for some time and this pent up desire has led to ~9,000 TWh of bids: 15 wind, 4 solar, one biomass and one water. Not all of this bid amount will lead to power purchase agreements.
The call for 3,000 GWh of new (wind) power is roughly 40% larger than B.C.’s current supply of wind or equivalent to about 10 projects the size of the Cape Scott wind facility. The Call process and 2028 in-service timeline is a very fast turnaround for enabling the development and submission of robust proposals where technical precision and reasonable costs are important ingredients.
However, developing more wind electricity projects has the potential to expand opportunities for Indigenous equity participation in essential infrastructure. It also enables expanded private sector participation in B.C.’s electric sector from mature and experienced developers and operators. Renewed interest in adding private sector electricity to B.C. Hydro’s portfolio of resources also addresses pent-up desire to be part of the solution — both managing greenhouse gases and relieving growing supply and reliability constraints on the B.C. Hydro electric system. Moreover, as many of the major projects wind up (e.g., Site C, TMX pipeline, LNG Canada, Coastal Gaslink), so do their economic benefits including well paying jobs especially in rural B.C. So, developing private electricity projects could help fulfill multiple goals but collectively do not match the magnitude of total investment activity currently wrapping up..
The questions are how much and how fast new projects can be identified, selected, permitted, built, and begin operations given a myriad of challenges.
Developing Wind Resources: Challenges
The hurdles are numerous and the process for development of wind resources complex.
Siting: Identifying appropriate locations for turbines is a challenge. Sites must have sustained windy conditions and be environmentally and socially acceptable, which means no impacts on protected areas and minimizing impacts on local communities. B.C.’s wild, difficult and varied terrain presents its own set of issues. In addition, many new planning exercises are being initiated in the province — water, marine, land, and forests — along with work to increase the scope of protected areas. As such, site availability and selection alone become sizable hurdles that will limit wind project development in the province. There are several dormant wind projects in B.C.’s environmental assessment process that could be revived but there is uncertainty related to navigating permitting.
Design and Engineering: Any land-based wind project larger then 15 MW is considered reviewable. Anything smaller then 15 MW is not considered utility scale. The engineering feat of ensuring wind turbines are efficient and reliable over time and have the necessary transmission infrastructure adds another layer of complexity, one not often thought about.
Regulatory: Lengthy environmental assessment and permitting processes slow down development. The average time for projects reviewed under the B.C. Environmental Assessment process is 8 years.[6] Public engagement with local communities as part of the regulatory review will almost certainly add to project timelines.
Community Acceptance: There are “not in my backyard” attitudes to most large capital projects, clean or otherwise. The spatial impacts of wind can be significant, adding to the wariness of communities in accepting new and significant increases in land use.[7]
Cost: The capital required for any kind of electricity project is substantial. Estimates range between $3 million and $4 million per megawatt of wind electricity. A 100 MW wind project in B.C. (and elsewhere) requires a large amount of private capital in a market that seems wary of British Columbia as a place to invest. Selecting winners and the best project with the least cost is difficult especially where public tolerance for rising costs from government services including electricity is waning.
Affordability: Since the late 1980s, except for Site C, successive B.C. governments have turned to the private sector to develop new electric facilities via B.C. Hydro. Eventually, these acquisition processes were halted because of concerns about costs. Utility customers pay the costs of the new projects in the form of higher electricity rates.
British Columbians are already facing significant affordability challenges. Raising electricity rates add to an already heavy cost of living burden. The government of B.C., through the B.C. Utilities Commission, must be mindful of the impact current project development will have on future electricity rates for households and industry. For the latter, this is particularly important from a final product competitiveness point of view, where many are price takers in international markets.
Indigenous participation: There is limited access to capital by potential Indigenous partners, although this is changing. B.C. Hydro’s 25% Indigenous equity participation as a criterion for bidding in the 2024 CFP may also present a significant hurdle. Many Indigenous-owned or partnership projects are not utility scale and dominantly small hydroelectric. The latter are not eligible to bid, and there are no opportunities for these kinds of projects with the demise of the Standing Offer program.
2024 CFP process and ongoing calls for proposals: It is unlikely that all the proposals submitted to the 2024 CFP will be wind despite BC Hydro indicating its preference for wind projects in conversations with hopeful bidders. Whatever the composition of additional cleaner electricity BC Hydro selects, adding anything close to the 3 TWh (or 3,000 GWh) in new wind generation capacity by 2028 (or any combination of new cleaner supply for that matter) requires a Herculean effort considering the sourcing, permitting and construction requirements. If all “phase one” proposals: (a) are viable, (b) manage to navigate the regulatory process quickly, (c) secure community acceptance, (d) include Indigenous economic participation and support, and (e) are built and operating by 2028, then B.C. could meet its 2030 wind electricity target. But the required in-service date of fall 2028 for the first tranche of new resources is formidable as are the other components of the development process — and 2030 is only 5 years away.
Conclusion
Electricity is a key part of the energy system and a relatively small component overall. It is a versatile and flexible energy form and as a subsector within the larger energy system, is also a major focus for governments looking to manage greenhouse gas emissions. Wind generated electricity is an increasingly important supply source despite it representing only a tiny fraction of total “renewables” and the total electricity supply in BC, Canada and the world. In BC even with aggressive efforts to develop wind projects the province will likely fall short of its 2030 wind electricity objective. While B.C. should continue to develop new cleaner sources of electricity generation, it should not do so any cost. As such, recalibration of B.C. ‘s electrification plans appears warranted.
See also: Wind Power won’t solve B.C.’s energy conundrum, as published in Troy Media on Sept 18, 2024.
[1] Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy Data, 2023.
[2] Sources BC Hydro https://www.bchydro.com/energy-in-bc/operations/our-facilities.html and https://www.bchydro.com/content/dam/BCHydro/customer-portal/documents/corporate/independent-power-producers-calls-for-power/independent-power-producers/ipp-supply-list-in-operation.pdf, Fortis https://www.fortisbc.com/about-us/facilities-operations-and-energy-information/electricity-facilities-and-operations, BC Utilities Commission https://docs.bcuc.com/documents/AnnualReports/2024/BCUC-F2022-23-Annual-Report.pdf.
[3] Government of BC CleanBC model results, 2022 Provincial Forecast (XLSX, 102KB) available here tab labelled Elec_CBC.
[4] Cogeneration or combined heat and power is defined as the sequential generation of two different forms of useful energy from a single primary energy source, typically mechanical energy, and thermal energy.
[5] https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/natural-gas-combined-cycle.
[6] EPIC database.
[7] Unintended consequences of “green” and “clean”: https://www.bcbc.com/insight/unintended-consequences-of-green-and-clean?rq=unintended and Electrification policy impacts on land system in British Columbia, Canada https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667095X24000047.